Australia’s jobless rate is expected to hold flat for July when official figures are released.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics is widely tipped to report a national unemployment rate of 3.5 per cent on Thursday.
However, ANZ economists expect it to rise to 3.6 per cent, with employment growth increasing by 5000 and the participation rate holding at 66.8 per cent.
They point to leading labour indicators, such as ANZ’s job vacancies and NAB’s business survey, deteriorating in recent months.
Westpac economists forecast the unemployment rate to creep up to 3.8 per cent by the end of the year and hit 4.7 per cent in late 2024.
Any rise in jobless numbers will add more clout to the argument the Reserve Bank has finished its interest rate hiking cycle it began last year.
The economy is expected to weaken in coming months, with a new survey showing high levels of concern among managers about the potential for a recession.
The KordaMentha TMA Australia turnaround survey found 70 per cent of respondents anticipated a recession in the next 12 months, including 19 per cent who felt it would occur within six months.
Sectors facing the most stress included construction, consumer discretionary and commercial real estate, on the back of a rising cost base, higher wages and cashflow problems.
A recession is defined by two consecutive quarters where gross domestic product (GDP) falls.
The last official quarterly growth figure was 0.2 per cent, with the June quarter figure due to be reported on September 6.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has said due to global economic uncertainty and higher interest rates, the economy was expected to slow but would still grow.
