Surprisingly hot inflation has likely locked in the seventh interest rate rise in a row and more pain for mortgage holders.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet on Tuesday afternoon to make its November cash rate decision.
The central bank has been lifting rates from record low levels since May, with the official cash rate sitting at 2.6 per cent.
Inflation remains well above the central bank’s target of two to three per cent, with core inflation hitting 6.1 per cent and headline inflation 7.3 per cent in the third quarter.
With inflation proving hard to dial back, the Australian National University’s RBA shadow board is confident the central bank will lift interest rates by another 25 basis points.
Compared to pre-hikes, a 0.25 percentage point lift will push monthly repayments up by $760 for a mortgage holder $500,000 in debt with 25 years remaining on the loan, RateCity analysis shows.
The shadow board said there were signs consumer and business confidence was starting to ease, but at the same time, global economic headwinds were brewing and the labour market was still extremely tight.
Monday’s 0.6 per cent increase in retail trade for September is also likely to bolster the case for another rate rise, although analysts said the uplift was largely driven by inflation rather than the volume of spending.
Several economists have updated their RBA forecasts in the wake of the September consumer price index figures, with many expecting a more protracted rate hiking cycle and a higher terminal rate.
A return to larger 50 basis point hikes has also been floated as a possibility.
Some experts also expect new peak inflation forecasts from the central bank.
NAB economists see the RBA adding another half a percentage point to their peak headline inflation forecast of 7.75 per cent in December.
© AAP 2022
